The country recorded 92,573 tourist arrivals in the first 15 days of March, down from 113,530 during the same period last year. The decline follows three consecutive high-performing months, including 277,327 arrivals in January and 279,328 in February.
In response, the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority is considering revising its March target to 200,000 arrivals as momentum cools.
Industry analysts attribute the downturn primarily to the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, which has disrupted key global aviation hubs critical for long-haul travel to Sri Lanka. Data from March 2025 shows that a significant share of inbound tourists transited through the region, with Dubai accounting for 13.4 percent of arrivals, Doha 11 percent, and Abu Dhabi 7.86 percent. Airlines based in the region—including Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad Airways—collectively carried over 28 percent of visitors to the island, highlighting the sector’s dependence on these routes.
With these transit hubs under strain, the flow of international visitors has been constrained, particularly from Western markets. Average daily arrivals from Russia dropped from 941 in March 2025 to 541 in the first half of March 2026, a decline of more than 40 percent. The United Kingdom also recorded a fall, with daily averages slipping from 724 to 571.
The shift has altered Sri Lanka’s top source markets, with Poland and the Netherlands dropping out of the top ten. Japan and Canada have entered the rankings in their place.
Despite the downturn in Western arrivals, regional and Eastern markets have shown resilience. India remains the largest source market, increasing its daily average from 1,264 to 1,549 arrivals. China has also posted strong growth, with daily arrivals rising from 358 to 513, while Australia recorded a moderate increase from 290 to 346.
Total tourist arrivals from January 1 to March 15 reached 649,228, with India contributing the largest share at 122,984 visitors.
While the year-to-date performance remains strong, maintaining momentum will be critical if Sri Lanka is to meet its target of 3 million tourists in 2026. The goal would require an average of around 8,200 daily arrivals throughout the year.
