Location and movement: As of Monday morning, Melissa was a Category 5 storm located about 135 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. It is moving very slowly, which increases the risk of extreme rainfall and storm surge.
Landfall and path: The core of the hurricane is expected to pass near or over Jamaica late Monday and early Tuesday. It is then forecast to move across southeastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
Projected impacts: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns of "catastrophic and life-threatening" conditions for Jamaica, including:
Wind: Sustained winds up to 160 mph, with potentially stronger gusts in mountainous areas. These winds could cause total structural failure and widespread power outages.
Rainfall: 15 to 30 inches of rain, with isolated amounts possibly exceeding 40 inches in elevated areas. This will likely cause catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides.
Storm surge: A life-threatening storm surge of 9 to 13 feet is expected along Jamaica's southern coast.
A group of over 200 British tourists, many traveling with the tour company TUI, were instructed to lock themselves in their hotel rooms.
Jamaican authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders for vulnerable coastal areas, particularly around the capital of Kingston, and opened shelters.
Hurricane Melissa is the third Category 5 storm of the 2025 season. This follows another powerful storm, Hurricane Beryl, which caused significant damage to Jamaica in July 2024, despite not making a direct landfall.
