Sri Lanka could face one of the most significant El Niño events in decades, with the Department of Meteorology warning of major shifts in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures and a potential water shortage in the months ahead.
Speaking at a media briefing on Friday (11), Director General of Meteorology Ajith Wijeyamanna said the probability of an El Niño event has increased from 69% to 75%, raising concerns over its possible impact on Sri Lanka.
The Department has forecast above-average rainfall during October and November, as changes in atmospheric conditions associated with the Pacific Ocean influence weather patterns across the region.
The probability of the phenomenon developing into a strong El Niño between October and December has also risen sharply, according to the latest forecasts cited by the Meteorology Department.
However, the weather pattern could change significantly early next year.
Following the expected heavy rainfall, the country could experience a sharp reduction in precipitation between January and March, increasing the risk of drought and water shortages in many areas.
The Department said rainfall is expected to remain relatively subdued over the next two weeks, but conditions could gradually become wetter across the island from late September.
At the same time, temperatures are expected to remain elevated. Both daytime and nighttime temperatures could stay above normal as global temperatures continue to rise, meaning the expected rains may not bring significant relief from the heat.
Wijeyamanna stressed that El Niño should not simply be viewed as a dry-weather phenomenon. Rather, it can disrupt Sri Lanka’s normal seasonal rainfall patterns, potentially producing contrasting periods of excessive rainfall and prolonged dryness.
