But analysts have pointed out that Iran's potential loss depends on several unknown factors, including how impenetrable the US blockade turns out to be and to what extent Tehran can reroute oil exports through the Jask terminal, outside the Hormuz waters. NDTV reported.
The short-term damage is likely to be offset by the Iranian oil already on the water. As of late March, Iran had an estimated 154 million barrels floating outside the blockage-affected Gulf, according to Kpler.
"The US quarantine of Iran's ports will cost Iran about $435 million a day in economic damage," Miad Maleki, a former official with the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, told WSJ.
The estimated losses include about $276 million in lost exports, mainly crude oil and petrochemicals. But Maleki's estimates are based on Iran exporting 1.5 million barrels of oil a day at a wartime price of about $87 a barrel and assume more than 90 per cent of the oil transits through Kharg Island, inside the Persian Gulf.
Trump threatened to impose the blockade after talks to further a fragile ceasefire ended without a deal this past weekend. Iran had previously halted nearly all tanker traffic through the key waterway, allowing only some ships perceived as friendly to pass while charging considerable fees.
The point of the US blockade is to maximise pressure on Iran by strangling its cash flow from the energy trade.
According to Marc Thiessen, columnist and former White House Director of Speechwriting, the blockade accomplishes virtually the same thing as would a military operation to seize Kharg Island-- through which almost all of Iran's oil passes. However, he opined that the blockage would inflict similar damage to the Iranian economy without the risks involved in deploying US ground forces -- likely shutting down Iran's oil exports and cutting off its energy revenue.
Moreover, by blocking Iran's energy exports to China, which gets 45 to 50 per cent of its crude oil and 30 per cent of its liquefied natural gas imports through the strait, Trump can also give Beijing an incentive to join him in that pressure campaign.
