The inaugural UNWTO World Tourism Barometer for the year unveils a positive outlook for international tourism, concluding 2023 at 88 percent of pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals. Encouragingly, the surge in remaining pent-up demand, enhanced air connectivity, and a robust recovery in Asian markets are projected to be key drivers propelling a full-scale recovery by the close of 2024.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili remarked on the significance of the data, stating, "The latest UNWTO data underscores tourism’s resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024." He emphasized the substantial impact on economies, job markets, growth, and opportunities for communities worldwide.
Pololikashvili also stressed the importance of advancing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development.
The forecast from UNWTO anticipates a complete recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to a 2 percent growth above 2019 figures.
However, this positive projection is contingent upon the pace of recovery in Asia and the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical risks. The upbeat sentiment is echoed in the UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, where 67 percent of tourism professionals foresee better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. Only 6 percent anticipate a decline in tourism performance for 2024.
Available data highlights remarkable growth in international arrivals in 2023, with several destinations, both established and emerging, reporting double-digit increases compared to 2019. Noteworthy achievements include four sub-regions—Southern Mediterranean Europe, Caribbean, Central America, and North Africa—exceeding their 2019 arrival levels.
Moreover, destinations reported robust growth in international tourism receipts during the first ten to twelve months of 2023, surpassing growth in arrivals in some cases. The period also witnessed strong demand for outbound travel from several major source markets, with many surpassing 2019 levels.
Industry indicators further underscore the sustained recovery. The UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker reveals that international air capacity and passenger demand have rebounded to approximately 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels through October 2023 (IATA). Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments reached 65 percent in November, a slight increase from 62 percent in November 2022. The positive momentum in these indicators bodes well for the global tourism sector as it continues its path towards complete recovery.
